The bullet not fired

Two recent news reports on the war in Afghanistan present a more complete story together.

One reported that civilian deaths are rapidly rising in Afghanistan, after a period in which they had been steeply declining.  And the rise is largely due to shootings at checkpoints

Shootings of Afghan civilians by American and NATO convoys and at military checkpoints have spiked sharply this year, becoming the leading cause of combined civilian deaths and injuries at the hands of Western forces.

It is one of the paradoxes of counter-insurgency war.  Any hope for a military outcome rests on success in winning the local population, yet insurgents are often indistinguishable from the people.  Soldiers at checkpoints are “faced with a different challenge of snap decisions” by troops “much closer to not only the people but the enemy,” said Gen. David Rodriguez, the operational commander of American and NATO forces in Afghanistan.  A soldier often has a split second to decide whether the car approaching the checkpoint contains women and children or a car bomb that could take his life.  And so if the vehicle doesn’t stop when ordered, the normal response is to fire.

The other story reported that the military is considering a new “courageous restraint” award for troops who avoid using force when it could endanger civilians.  A statement on the NATO website said that, while troops are usually rewarded for effectiveness in combat, in a counter-insurgency campaign

…it is critical to also recognize that sometimes the most effective bullet is the bullet not fired. There should be an opportunity to recognize and celebrate the troops who exhibit extraordinary courage and self-control by not using their weapons, but instead taking personal risk to de-escalate tense and potentially disastrous situations.

At first this might seem self-evident – one would hope soldiers are trained to be certain of who they’re shooting at.  But if positive reinforcement encourages more caution, it’s probably good.  In the final analysis, however, it’s another example of why non-military strategies in Afghanistan have a far better chance of succeeding than continuing the war. Aid and development will win the people, not counter-insurgency war.